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The agricultural sector is highly exposed to the expected impacts of climate change, such as more frequent extreme weather events, prolonged and intensified heat waves, and water shortages, which present new challenges to farmers. Innovation is becoming increasingly important in European and Hungarian agricultural policy, and it plays a key role in the decarbonization of the sector. Innovative technologies improve the three dimensions of sustainability, and contribute to food security and increase the profitability of agricultural production. The research aims to analyze the greenhouse gas emission trends and forecast future emissions from the agriculture sector in Hungary and give a brief overview of the emission scenarios reported in the National Clean Development Strategy. Descriptive statistics are used to analyze emissions data. Chebyshev’s inequality is used to predict future EU and domestic GHG emissions. Agriculture is one of the most conservative sectors from a climate perspective and it is already visible that the conventional approach will not be enough, but it has effective tools to achieve climate neutrality by 2050.
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